The same thing that made Team Bernie so much stronger in caucuses will win NY one week from now: The “Enthusiasm Gap”. She’s trying to jump over it... incrementally.
But but but that’s a myth! Tell that to Benny Thompson, a Clinton supporter “super delegate” and U.S. Representative for the 2nd District of Mississippi who recently said it’s a problem:
Basically Hillary’s voters like her, but Bernie’s voters love him. And next week that will probably make a difference. Her safe lead in New York is about to bern up because the voting lines are going to be EPIC. New York has never had competitive Democratic and Republican primaries at the same time. And who is more likely to wait in yuuuuge lines? Those meddling kids!
A tale of two rallies
I’ve been to both types of rallies. Bernie rocks the Casbah. Hillary does “intimate gatherings” for “retail politics”. IMO if Hillary could fill stadiums she would do so. She can’t. Why? Helllloooo!?!?!?! The enthusiasm gap!
Next Tuesday enthusiasm is key. I am not a New Yorker, so this is “net info” (unconfirmed): Democrats and Republicans all vote at the same polling places, and NY allows a weird “merged ballot” (not being used this time).
If Rs and Ds all vote at the same polling places the voting lines could be long as hell, and those long lines will filter out people who aren’t super dedicated to their candidate. The same thing that made her Nevada delegates stay home will make her NY voters stay home: apathy.
In February, Clinton won a total of 4,889 delegates in Clark County but less than half of those showed up for the county convention.
This theory also tries to answer the question Why can’t Hillary’s people caucus worth a damn? Where is their enthusiasm? If they had more they wouldn’t get blown out so much. Maybe they’re tired of defending the superPACs. Maybe they don’t want to vote against less money in politics.
So I had this theory all cooked up and then of course while doing my research for the links I found that Seth Abramson had already written it up for me. He titled his:
Lack of Early Voting Could Spell Doom for Clinton in New York Primary
-
Seth Abramson Assistant Professor of English at University of New Hampshire; Series Co-Editor, Best American Experimental Writing
Now I’m just a dude in Texas who also campaigned a bit in Iowa, so I can climb out on a limb here. I would bet money on this theory, but probably not a lot of it because I have already seen some irregularities this year. But I’d say its likely that the advantage she gains from a closed primary is erased by the lack of early voting. And as his polling numbers rise her early voting advantage will also go bye bye, unless someone pulls another Arizona.
some supporting data (such as it is)
I posit that at least three or four data points lend support to this theory. Obviously they do not PROVE anything yet (if ever!)
1) Rally turnouts
Bernie packs ‘em in because people want someone they can trust, who shares their values. Bernie doesn’t take big money, he’s simply not for sale. And his policies rarely change, most of them have been rock solid for decades, unlike some people’s.
2) Steadfastness. About 10% more Hillary voters say they are willing to vote for Bernie than vise-versa. The hated “Bernie-or-busters” are perhaps around 10% of the total electorate. They are largely Independents, who are unlikely to be voting this time in NY unless they changed their party registration last October. In the general election they will be there if Bernie is on the ballot. But many Dems are also BorBs. They’re sick of incrementalism and mendacity.
So who is more likely to stay in line for hours on end? Probably a 10-20% factor for Bernie. Hillary’s favorable/unfavorable numbers vs Bernies track along those same lines.
3) Breaking Bad (or good, depending)
Exit polls in Arizona showed more primary day voters went for Bernie, whereas more early voters went for Clinton. Here’s a clip from the Seth Abramson article:
In Arizona, Clinton won the 297,000 early votes by a 61.5 percent to 36.1 percent margin (25.4 points). In live voting, as a calculator and the official results reveal, Sanders won Arizona on Election Day by 3.5 points: 50.0 percent to 46.5 percent.
That’s almost a 30% difference. Even though the election results were announced hours before the last people voted (With 1% of the votes in, Hillary wins, yay!) many people stayed in line. Why? IMO its because they wanted to vote for Bernie. Sadly many of them only got provisional ballots which didn’t count because their registration status was “goofed up” somehow. (A scandal I think, but another topic) They still proved my point: Bernie voters will stand in line for hours.
4) Current polls showing Hillary 10+ points ahead could easily cause some Clinton voters to blow off standing in line for hours on end. Bernie voters are more tech savvy and know it could be close, IMO they will make an extra effort. Plus they’re crazy as hell.
Conclusion
The sheer steadfastness and dedication Bernie voters exhibited in the ways shown above make me think they will be there in line until they get to vote. The lower enthusiasm of the Hillary voters will make many of them blow it off rather than spend hours in line. We shall see what happens. To me it looks like about a 10% win for Sanders, and an upset even greater than Michigan because it will happen in the Big Apple.
We fought for Wisconsin and won that big. We had to, to set the stage for NY. Of course a win in NY would build momentum for the rest of the run, and change the math a lot. Hillary’s status as the unbeatable front runner has quietly melted away. The trend lines are still fairly straight...
I used to curse the restrictive NY voting rules but this year with the Republican idiots plugging up the polls having no early voting may be the best thing ever. After Bernie is elected he should see if they’ll agree to change it a bit.
THE END
Addendum
In the Seth Abramson article, he sets the stage for more states to come:
a further question is how Clinton will fare in the four states yet to vote that restrict early voting in the same fashion as does New York — New Jersey, Kentucky, Delaware, and Rhode Island — as well as the three large states with no early voting at all: Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.
All told, these eight states will award well over 900 delegates in the next sixty days.