WA-Gov: Grudge Match

If there's any governor's mansion in the country the Republicans want to gain in November, it's Washington's. This year's race is a rematch of 2004, with poor loser Dino Rossi trying to capitalize on the sour grapes the state and national Republicans still feel over their 133 vote loss that came after three vote tallies and a failed Republican court challenge. That election was also probably the reason for the firing of USA John McKay, who refused to open a federal criminal investigation into voter fraud allegations.

So there's a lot at stake for Republicans in this. And it's not looking too good for Rossi at the moment. On the heels of reports that she doubled Rossi's fundraising in April, raising well over a million dollars (1.3m) to his $641K, comes some very encouraging polling from Rasmussen.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Washington voters shows Gregoire leading her Republican challenger, Dino Rossi, by eleven percentage points. It’s Gregoire 52% Rossi 41%.

In late March, Gregoire was up by just a statistically insignificant single percentage point. In February, Rossi had a one point advantage. Four years ago, the 2004 election between the same two candidates was one of the closest elections in the state’s history.

Gregoire is supported by 86% of Democrats and has a has a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect significant improvement for Gregoire since March. Rossi earns the vote from 88% of Republicans, up slightly from 85% in the previous poll. The incumbent Democrat now leads among both men and women.

One of the factors behind Gregoire's surge is that she's finally able to campaign and fundraise after the "session freeze" which prevents Washington lawmakers from fundraising during the legilslative session. The freeze allowed Rossi to amass $2.7 whlie she was stymied, but given her totals for April, and her polling, she should have no problems on the money front. Another factor to consider is Obama's eleven point lead in the state over McCain.  

The Republicans are going to be hell-bent in getting revenge on Gregoire this year, and shouldn't be taken lightly. But it's definitely going to be an uphill battle for them.

Race tracker wiki: WA-Gov